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Atlético Mineiro
Cruzeiro
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
55%Crowd
37%Market
+18Divergence

+18 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits 18 points above market on Atletico Mineiro, the widest gap across all three legs.

23m 19sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap37%55% Atletico Mineiro+18
2Will both teams score?55%70% Yes+15
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?49%54% Over 2.5 goals+5
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters568World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Atletico Mineiro55%
Cruzeiro32%
Tie13%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters568
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters568
3Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters568
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Atletico Mineiro
Mkt 37%Crowd 55%+18pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 49%Crowd 54%+5pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 55%Crowd 70%+15pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Atletico Mineiro win in an open, end-to-end derby where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultAtletico Mineiro
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A minority but coherent bloc sees Cruzeiro turning the derby in a lively, mutually productive game with plenty of scoring from both sides.

Match resultCruzeiro
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, disciplined Atletico Mineiro victory with the game locked down, few goals, and Cruzeiro kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultAtletico Mineiro
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 568 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%162 voters
Atletico MineiroPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
214%82 voters
CruzeiroPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
311%63 voters
Atletico MineiroPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
411%63 voters
Atletico MineiroPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
58%47 voters
CruzeiroPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.9×
67%39 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.6×
77%37 voters
CruzeiroPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
84%25 voters
Atletico MineiroPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
93%15 voters
CruzeiroPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
102%14 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (568 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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