All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
New York GiantsWon · Crowd had 55%28
Dallas CowboysCrowd had 45%20
The verdict

The crowd called it — New York Giants won 28–20.

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys 570 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on New York Giants, and the crowd had it.

55%Crowd on New York Giants
41%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd beat the market
Against the spread, who…Crowd beat the market
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters570World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Giants ✓55%
Dallas Cowboys45%
OutcomeNew York Giants
Voters570
ReadCrowd
2Against the spread, who covers?
New York Giants +2.5 ✓57%
Dallas Cowboys -2.543%
OutcomeNew York Giants +2.5
Voters570
ReadCrowd
3How many total points are scored?
Over 47.5 ✓58%
Under 47.542%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters570
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
New York Giants ✓49%
Dallas Cowboys37%
Tie14%
OutcomeNew York Giants
Voters570
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York GiantsCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 55%+14pp
Result: New York Giants · 0.40
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: New York Giants +2.5Crowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 57%+10pp
Result: New York Giants +2.5 · 0.37
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 47.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 58%+6pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.35
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York GiantsCrowd
Mkt 40%Crowd 49%+9pp
Result: New York Giants · 0.42
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.40
Against the spread, who covers0.37
How many total points are scored0.35
Who leads at half-time0.42
Average0.39
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters · came true

Giants in front at the break, controlling the game, covering the spread in a high-scoring contest they ultimately win outright.

Who wins?New York Giants
Against the spread, who covers?New York Giants +2.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Giants
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Cowboys seize the lead early, push the pace in an open, high-scoring game, and pull clear enough to cover the spread comfortably.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Against the spread, who covers?Dallas Cowboys -2.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas Cowboys
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Giants grind out a low-scoring, disciplined win, leading at the break and keeping the total in check while covering as underdogs.

Who wins?New York Giants
Against the spread, who covers?New York Giants +2.5
How many total points are scored?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?New York Giants
43% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 570 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
122%124 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsCalled it!
2.4×
212%66 voters
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
Dallas Cowboys -2.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
2.8×
310%56 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
New York GiantsCalled it!
1.5×
49%52 voters
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
Dallas Cowboys -2.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
3.0×
54%24 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
Dallas Cowboys -2.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsCalled it!
0.6×
64%22 voters
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
0.7×
73%19 voters
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
0.8×
83%18 voters
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
New York GiantsCalled it!
0.4×
93%17 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
New York Giants +2.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Dallas CowboysGot it wrong
0.4×
103%17 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
Dallas Cowboys -2.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
New York GiantsCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (570 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4124 · 22%
3 / 4122 · 21%
2 / 4123 · 22%
1 / 4140 · 25%
0 / 461 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=570). Average 2.19 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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