All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
SunderlandCrowd had 41%0
Brighton and Hove Albion2
The verdict

The crowd backed Sunderland. Brighton and Hove Albion won 0–2.

Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion 539 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Sunderland, and it went the other way.

41%Crowd on Sunderland
31%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters539World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sunderland41%
Brighton ✓39%
Tie20%
OutcomeBrighton
Voters539
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters539
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters539
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SunderlandMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 41%+10pp
Result: Brighton · 0.58
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 67%+8pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.58
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

A Brighton road win in an open, end-to-end contest, both sides finding the net in a match that spills past the goals line.

Match resultBrighton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Sunderland seizing home advantage in a lively, high-scoring affair, with both teams contributing to a busy scoreline.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight Sunderland home win, goals kept to a minimum but both sides getting on the scoresheet in a close, hard-fought contest.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 539 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
118%98 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
216%88 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
311%61 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
411%60 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
59%46 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
68%43 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
77%39 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
86%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
95%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
104%21 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (539 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 346 · 9%
2 / 3153 · 28%
1 / 3219 · 41%
0 / 3121 · 22%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=539). Average 1.23 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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