All resolved pollsResolved · 21 JUN 2026Upset
BelgiumCrowd's pick · 73%0
IranCrowd had 18%0
The verdict

Belgium 0–0 Iran

Belgium vs. Iran 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Belgium73%
Iran18%
Draw10%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Belgium62%
Draw20%
Iran18%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: BelgiumUpset
Mkt 69%Crowd 73%+4pp
Result: Draw · 1.38
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 61%+9pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BelgiumUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 62%+12pp
Result: Draw · 1.06
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 70%+25pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.38
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.74
Who leads at half-time1.06
Will both teams score0.98
Average1.04
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

Belgium dominant from kick-off, leading at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, free-scoring contest that ends in Belgian victory.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Belgium in control throughout, leading at half-time and winning with goals to spare, but Iran kept off the scoresheet in a one-sided affair.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Belgium ahead at the break and winning, but the game stays tight and low-scoring with Iran grabbing one back in a compact, scrappy contest.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
128%376 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
210%131 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
310%126 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
48%112 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
57%87 voters
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.7×
64%52 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
74%47 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
83%44 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
93%36 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
102%31 voters
IranGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 421 · 2%
3 / 485 · 6%
2 / 4262 · 20%
1 / 4443 · 33%
0 / 4514 · 39%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 0.99 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.