The matchResolvedUpset
Belgium0
Iran0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
70%Crowd
45%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above market on both teams scoring. The result went the other way..

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap45%70% Yes+25
2Who leads at half-time?50%62% Belgium+12
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?52%61% Yes+9
4Who wins?69%73% Belgium+4
How it landed:UpsetBelgium 0–0 Iran — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Belgium73%
Iran18%
Draw10%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Belgium62%
Draw20%
Iran18%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: BelgiumUpset
Mkt 69%Crowd 73%+4pp
Result: Draw · 1.38
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 61%+9pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BelgiumUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 62%+12pp
Result: Draw · 1.06
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 70%+25pp
Result: No · 0.98
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.38
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.74
Who leads at half-time1.06
Will both teams score0.98
Average1.04
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

Belgium dominant from kick-off, leading at the break, both sides finding the net in an open, free-scoring contest that ends in Belgian victory.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Belgium in control throughout, leading at half-time and winning with goals to spare, but Iran kept off the scoresheet in a one-sided affair.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Belgium ahead at the break and winning, but the game stays tight and low-scoring with Iran grabbing one back in a compact, scrappy contest.

Who wins?Belgium
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Belgium
Will both teams score?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
128%376 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
210%131 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
310%126 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
48%112 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
57%87 voters
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.7×
64%52 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
74%47 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.1×
83%44 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
93%36 voters
BelgiumGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
102%31 voters
IranGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
IranGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.28How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 421 · 2%
3 / 485 · 6%
2 / 4262 · 20%
1 / 4443 · 33%
0 / 4514 · 39%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 0.99 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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