VoxPop top scenarios
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
USAWon · Crowd had 63%2
AustraliaCrowd had 27%0
The verdict
The crowd backed Yes. USA won 2–0.
USA vs. Australia 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 27 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
77%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+27Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.82
Will both teams score1.19
Who leads at half-time0.27
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
131%445 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
1.7×
29%126 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
0.9×
38%120 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.6×
45%72 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
USACalled it!
0.9×
54%63 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
USACalled it!
1.5×
64%60 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.4×
73%46 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
0.4×
83%46 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
93%39 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
0.4×
103%39 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.8 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.