VoxPop top scenarios
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
USA2
Australia0
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
77%Crowd
50%Market
+27Divergence
+27 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap50%77% Yes+27
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?49%64% Yes+15
3Who leads at half-time?44%58% USA+14
4Who wins?60%63% USA+3
Crowd & market agreedUnited States 2–0 Australia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeUSA
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.82
Will both teams score1.19
Who leads at half-time0.27
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
131%445 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
1.7×
29%126 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
0.9×
38%120 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.6×
45%72 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
USACalled it!
0.9×
54%63 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
USACalled it!
1.5×
64%60 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.4×
73%46 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
USACalled it!
0.4×
83%46 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
93%39 voters
USACalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
0.4×
103%39 voters
USACalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.8 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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