All resolved pollsResolved · 1 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
Belgium3
Senegal2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Belgium won 3–2.

Belgium vs Senegal 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

72%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Belgium advances69%
Senegal advances31%
OutcomeBelgium advances
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No54%
Yes46%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Belgium wins 1st Half44%
Tie 1st Half31%
Senegal wins 1st Half25%
OutcomeSenegal wins 1st Half
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Belgium advancesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 69%+6pp
Result: Belgium advances · 0.19
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 72%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 54%-5pp
Result: Yes · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Belgium wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 35%Crowd 44%+9pp
Result: Senegal wins 1st Half · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.19
Will both teams score in regulation time0.16
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.58
Who leads at half-time0.85
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

Belgium in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that spills past three goals with Belgium already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A tight, contained affair with Belgium edging ahead by half-time, both teams scoring but the game staying narrow and never breaking into a high-scoring spectacle.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A level, goal-filled first half gives way to a busy second period, with both teams on the scoresheet and the total climbing past three in a match that stays open throughout.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
117%209 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
213%158 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.1×
36%80 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
46%79 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.4×
56%77 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.7×
66%74 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.0×
76%72 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.2×
86%71 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
95%58 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
104%52 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 452 · 4%
3 / 4407 · 33%
2 / 4471 · 38%
1 / 4276 · 22%
0 / 444 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.12 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.