The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Belgium3
Senegal2
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
72%Crowd
48%Market
+24Divergence

+24 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, a conviction that aligned with how the game finished.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap48%72% Yes+24
2Who leads at half-time?35%44% Belgium wins 1st Half+9
3Who wins this match?63%69% Belgium advances+6
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?59%54% No-5
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedBelgium 3–2 Senegal — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Belgium advances69%
Senegal advances31%
OutcomeBelgium advances
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No54%
Yes46%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Belgium wins 1st Half44%
Tie 1st Half31%
Senegal wins 1st Half25%
OutcomeSenegal wins 1st Half
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Belgium advancesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 69%+6pp
Result: Belgium advances · 0.19
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 72%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 54%-5pp
Result: Yes · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Belgium wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 35%Crowd 44%+9pp
Result: Senegal wins 1st Half · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.19
Will both teams score in regulation time0.16
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.58
Who leads at half-time0.85
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

Belgium in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open, end-to-end contest that spills past three goals with Belgium already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A tight, contained affair with Belgium edging ahead by half-time, both teams scoring but the game staying narrow and never breaking into a high-scoring spectacle.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Belgium wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A level, goal-filled first half gives way to a busy second period, with both teams on the scoresheet and the total climbing past three in a match that stays open throughout.

Who wins this match?Belgium advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
117%209 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
213%158 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.1×
36%80 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
46%79 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Belgium wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.4×
56%77 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.7×
66%74 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.0×
76%72 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.2×
86%71 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
95%58 voters
Senegal advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
104%52 voters
Belgium advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Senegal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 452 · 4%
3 / 4407 · 33%
2 / 4471 · 38%
1 / 4276 · 22%
0 / 444 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.12 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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