All resolved pollsResolved · 18 SEPT 2026Upset
MonzaWon · Crowd had 36%2
SassuoloCrowd's pick · 41%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Monza won 2–1.

Monza vs Sassuolo 607 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
52%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters607World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sassuolo41%
Monza ✓36%
Tie24%
OutcomeMonza
Voters607
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals ✓40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters607
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters607
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SassuoloUpset
Mkt 41%Crowd 41%0pp
Result: Monza · 0.64
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 60%+8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.72
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 62%+4pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.64
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.72
Will both teams score0.29
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A lively Sassuolo win with goals at both ends and the game spilling past the 2.5 threshold, the crowd's most tightly coordinated vision of the match.

Match resultSassuolo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Sassuolo edging a tight contest, both sides finding the net but the scoring staying contained, a cautious winning picture for the away side.

Match resultSassuolo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow, defensive Monza victory with one side shut out entirely, the crowd's clearest vision of a home win built on solidity rather than open play.

Match resultMonza
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 607 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
114%88 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
213%77 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
312%70 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
412%70 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
510%63 voters
SassuoloGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
69%56 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
79%56 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
87%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
95%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
103%21 voters
MonzaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (607 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 370 · 12%
2 / 3197 · 32%
1 / 3235 · 39%
0 / 3105 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=607). Average 1.38 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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