All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
New England PatriotsWon · Crowd had 50%45
Las Vegas RaidersCrowd had 50%17
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 45.5. New England Patriots won 45–17.

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 52 points above the market's price on Over 45.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 45.5
48%Market price
+52Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
New England win by 4 or…Surprise
there be more than 45.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots ✓50%
Las Vegas Raiders50%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will New England win by 4 or more?
No75%
Yes ✓25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.5 ✓100%
Under 45.50%
OutcomeOver 45.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Tie50%
Las Vegas25%
New England ✓25%
OutcomeNew England
Voters4
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 50%-13pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.50
: Deep
Will New England win by 4 or more: NoUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 75%+24pp
Result: Yes · 1.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5Crowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 100%+52pp
Result: Over 45.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: TieMarket
Mkt 13%Crowd 50%+37pp
Result: New England · 0.88
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will New England win by 4 or more1.13
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time0.88
Average0.63
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Raiders upset in a high-scoring shootout, with Las Vegas controlling the first half and keeping the margin tight throughout.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will New England win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A Raiders win in a free-flowing game, New England leading at the break but Las Vegas flipping the script in a close, points-heavy finish.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will New England win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?New England
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Patriots take the win in a high-scoring affair, neither side pulling clear at half-time, with New England edging it by fewer than four in the end.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Will New England win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New England win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
Las VegasGot it wrong
2.7×
225%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
New EnglandCalled it!
2.7×
325%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
425%1 voter
New England PatriotsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 45.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
4.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.7×The most-backed combination drew 2.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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