All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Colo-Colo
Universidad de Concepción
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
58%Crowd
77%Market
-19Divergence

-19 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well below market on Colo-Colo, Universidad de Concepción drawing outsized crowd support.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap77%58% CSD Colo-Colo-19
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario58%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters537World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
CSD Colo-Colo58%
CD Universidad de Concepción27%
Tie15%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters537
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CSD Colo-Colo
Mkt 77%Crowd 58%-19pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 58% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Colo-Colo take the points at home, though the crowd holds this outcome with far less certainty than the market implies.

Match resultCSD Colo-Colo
Scenario 2 · 27% of voters

A sizeable crowd minority sees Universidad de Concepción pulling off the away result, a conviction running at multiples of what the market prices in.

Match resultCD Universidad de Concepción
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A smaller but present crowd cohort envisions the sides cancelling each other out, with crowd and market broadly aligned on this outcome.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 537 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
158%314 voters
CSD Colo-ColoPending
1.0×
227%144 voters
CD Universidad de ConcepciónPending
1.0×
315%79 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (537 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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