All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Houston TexansCrowd's pick · 51%31
Buffalo BillsWon · Crowd had 49%36
The verdict

The crowd backed Houston Texans +1.5. Buffalo Bills won 31–36.

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills 561 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 7 points above the market's price on Houston Texans +1.5, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Houston Texans +1.5
51%Market price
+7Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Against the spread, who…Surprise
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters561World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Houston Texans51%
Buffalo Bills ✓49%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters561
ReadMarket
2Against the spread, who covers?
Houston Texans +1.558%
Buffalo Bills -1.5 ✓42%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills -1.5
Voters561
ReadUpset
3How many total points are scored?
Over 44.5 ✓57%
Under 44.543%
OutcomeOver 44.5
Voters561
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Houston Texans44%
Buffalo Bills ✓39%
Tie16%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters561
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Houston TexansMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 51%+3pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 0.52
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Houston Texans +1.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 58%+7pp
Result: Buffalo Bills -1.5 · 0.67
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 44.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 57%+5pp
Result: Over 44.5 · 0.37
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Houston TexansMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 44%0pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 0.59
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.52
Against the spread, who covers0.67
How many total points are scored0.37
Who leads at half-time0.59
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A high-scoring Texans home stand: Houston controls the half, covers the spread, and both offences combine to push the total above the line.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Against the spread, who covers?Houston Texans +1.5
How many total points are scored?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston Texans
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters · came true

Bills take command from the first half, cover the spread outright, and an open, free-scoring game sends the total sailing over.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Against the spread, who covers?Buffalo Bills -1.5
How many total points are scored?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Buffalo Bills
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tight, grinding contest where Houston leads at the break, stays within the number, and defences keep the total in check.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Against the spread, who covers?Houston Texans +1.5
How many total points are scored?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston Texans
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 561 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
117%98 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
Houston TexansGot it wrong
2.4×
213%71 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Buffalo Bills -1.5Called it!
Over 44.5Called it!
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
2.8×
310%55 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
Houston TexansGot it wrong
1.8×
48%46 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Buffalo Bills -1.5Called it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
2.4×
55%30 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
0.8×
65%27 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
1.0×
74%21 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.5×
83%18 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Houston Texans +1.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.6×
93%17 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
Buffalo Bills -1.5Called it!
Over 44.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.6×
103%17 voters
Houston TexansGot it wrong
Buffalo Bills -1.5Called it!
Over 44.5Called it!
Houston TexansGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (561 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.4×The most-backed combination drew 2.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 471 · 13%
3 / 4119 · 21%
2 / 4111 · 20%
1 / 4190 · 34%
0 / 470 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=561). Average 1.88 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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