All resolved pollsResolved · 7 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
InternacionalWon · Crowd had 41%2
CorinthiansCrowd's pick · 43%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Internacional won 2–1.

Internacional vs Corinthians 574 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters574World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Corinthians43%
Internacional ✓41%
Tie15%
OutcomeInternacional
Voters574
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters574
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters574
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CorinthiansMarket
Mkt 26%Crowd 43%+17pp
Result: Internacional · 0.56
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 70%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.56
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

The crowd's most-backed vision: Corinthians take the points in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultCorinthians
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters · came true

A sizeable cluster saw Internacional winning a lively, mutually punishing contest with plenty of goals and both teams on the scoresheet.

Match resultInternacional
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A smaller but notable group pictured Internacional edging a tight, low-scoring affair where both sides still managed to score.

Match resultInternacional
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 574 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%118 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
219%108 voters
InternacionalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
310%60 voters
InternacionalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
410%57 voters
InternacionalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
510%56 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
69%52 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
77%41 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
84%23 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
104%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (574 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3108 · 19%
2 / 3211 · 37%
1 / 3178 · 31%
0 / 377 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=574). Average 1.61 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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