All resolved pollsResolved · 2 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BelgiumWon · Crowd had 70%3
Turkey0
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Belgium won 3–0.

Belgium vs Türkiye 601 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
67%Market price
-10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters601World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Belgium ✓70%
Turkiye20%
Tie10%
OutcomeBelgium
Voters601
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters601
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters601
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BelgiumConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 70%+5pp
Result: Belgium · 0.14
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 57%-10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 66%+4pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.14
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.37
Will both teams score0.87
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A free-flowing Belgian victory, goals shared across both sides, the crowd's dominant vision of how the night would unfold.

Match resultBelgium
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Belgium grind out a tight, low-scoring win, Türkiye kept scoreless, a disciplined and contained contest from start to finish.

Match resultBelgium
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A narrow Belgian win with just enough goals for both sides to register, compact but not entirely one-sided.

Match resultBelgium
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
62% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 601 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
135%211 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
217%102 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
310%59 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
48%50 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
58%49 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
66%38 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
74%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
84%22 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
92%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
102%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (601 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 349 · 8%
2 / 3329 · 55%
1 / 3158 · 26%
0 / 365 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=601). Average 1.6 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches