All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Cincinnati BengalsWon · Crowd had 52%33
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCrowd had 48%27
The verdict

The crowd called it — Cincinnati Bengals won 33–27.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 574 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points below the market's price on Cincinnati Bengals, and the crowd had it.

52%Crowd on Cincinnati Bengals
65%Market price
-13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsCrowd & market agreed
Against the spread, who…Surprise
total points are scoredSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario12%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters574World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Cincinnati Bengals ✓52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers48%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals
Voters574
ReadConsensus
2Against the spread, who covers?
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 ✓50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.550%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals -3.5
Voters574
ReadUpset
3How many total points are scored?
Under 50.552%
Over 50.5 ✓48%
OutcomeOver 50.5
Voters574
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Cincinnati Bengals ✓43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers38%
Tie20%
OutcomeCincinnati Bengals
Voters574
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Cincinnati BengalsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 52%-13pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals · 0.46
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 · 0.50
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Under 50.5Upset
Mkt 53%Crowd 52%-1pp
Result: Over 50.5 · 0.54
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Cincinnati BengalsConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 43%-13pp
Result: Cincinnati Bengals · 0.51
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.46
Against the spread, who covers0.50
How many total points are scored0.54
Who leads at half-time0.51
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 12% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Bengals statement: Cincinnati controls the half, pulls away by more than a field goal, and both offences combine to push the total past the line.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Against the spread, who covers?Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati Bengals
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A full Tampa Bay takeover: the Buccaneers lead at the break, keep the game tight and low-scoring, and hold on to win outright as the underdog.

Who wins?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Against the spread, who covers?Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A grinding Bengals win: Cincinnati leads at half and controls the pace, covering the spread in a defensive, lower-scoring contest that stays under the total.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Against the spread, who covers?Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati Bengals
35% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 574 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
112%71 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5Called it!
Over 50.5Called it!
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
2.3×
212%68 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
2.5×
311%64 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5Called it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
1.9×
410%56 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
2.2×
54%23 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
0.7×
63%20 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
0.7×
73%20 voters
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
83%19 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
93%19 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5Called it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
0.6×
103%19 voters
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGot it wrong
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
Cincinnati BengalsCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (574 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.27How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-19. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 471 · 12%
3 / 4135 · 24%
2 / 4132 · 23%
1 / 4149 · 26%
0 / 487 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=574). Average 1.92 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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