All resolved pollsResolved · 21 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
ComoWon · Crowd had 19%4
Manchester UnitedCrowd's pick · 73%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Manchester United. Como won 4–1.

Como vs Manchester United 584 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 40 points above the market's price on Manchester United, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Manchester United
33%Market price
+40Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario38%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters584World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester United73%
Como ✓19%
Tie8%
OutcomeComo
Voters584
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓66%
Under 2.5 goals34%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters584
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters584
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester UnitedMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 73%+40pp
Result: Como · 1.20
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.23
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 67%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.20
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.23
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 38% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a Manchester United win in an open, end-to-end game with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A United win with plenty of goals but all the scoring coming from one side, Como kept off the board in a one-sided attacking display.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, controlled United victory, few goals, Como shut out, the match decided by a narrow and disciplined margin.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 584 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
138%223 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
214%79 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
311%67 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
410%58 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
59%54 voters
ComoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%24 voters
ComoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
73%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
83%20 voters
ComoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
92%12 voters
ComoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
102%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (584 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 354 · 9%
2 / 3270 · 46%
1 / 3184 · 32%
0 / 376 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=584). Average 1.52 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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