All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Cincinnati BengalsCrowd had 33%17
Jacksonville JaguarsWon · Crowd had 67%22
The verdict

The crowd called it — Jacksonville Jaguars won 17–22.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Jacksonville Jaguars, and the crowd had it.

67%Crowd on Jacksonville Jaguars
43%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsCrowd beat the market
Cincinnati win by 3 or…Surprise
there be more than 51.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓67%
Cincinnati Bengals33%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters6
ReadCrowd
2Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 51.5 points?
Over 51.567%
Under 51.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 51.5
Voters6
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Cincinnati50%
Tie33%
Jacksonville ✓17%
OutcomeJacksonville
Voters6
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Jacksonville JaguarsCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 0.22
: Deep
Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 67%+14pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 51.5 points: Over 51.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Under 51.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: CincinnatiUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 50%-2pp
Result: Jacksonville · 1.05
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more0.90
Will there be more than 51.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time1.05
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A Bengals-controlled game from the first whistle, Cincinnati building a halftime lead and pulling away by a comfortable margin in a high-scoring shootout.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 51.5 points?Over 51.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A wide-open, back-and-forth contest with neither side separating at the break, Jacksonville eventually edging it without Cincinnati ever threatening a decisive cushion.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 51.5 points?Over 51.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A tight, low-scoring grind where Cincinnati held an early advantage at the half but Jacksonville ground out the win without the game ever opening up into a shootout.

Who wins?Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 51.5 points?Under 51.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Cincinnati win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 51.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Cincinnati BengalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 51.5Got it wrong
CincinnatiGot it wrong
4.5×
217%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 51.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
3.4×
317%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 51.5Called it!
CincinnatiGot it wrong
4.6×
417%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 51.5Got it wrong
JacksonvilleCalled it!
3.3×
517%1 voter
Jacksonville JaguarsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 51.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.74How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.5×The most-backed combination drew 4.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 17%
2 / 43 · 50%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 42 · 33%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.