All resolved pollsResolved · 24 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Ivory CoastWon · Crowd had 40%2
GhanaCrowd's pick · 45%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Ghana. Ivory Coast won 2–0.

Ivory Coast vs Ghana 467 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Ghana, and it went the other way.

45%Crowd on Ghana
13%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters467World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Ghana45%
Ivory Coast ✓40%
Tie15%
OutcomeIvory Coast
Voters467
ReadMarket
2Who leads at half-time?
Ghana wins 1st Half37%
Ivory Coast wins 1st Half ✓32%
Tie 1st Half31%
OutcomeIvory Coast wins 1st Half
Voters467
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters467
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters467
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GhanaMarket
Mkt 13%Crowd 45%+32pp
Result: Ivory Coast · 0.58
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Ghana wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 13%Crowd 37%+24pp
Result: Ivory Coast wins 1st Half · 0.70
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 52%-6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 65%+22pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.58
Who leads at half-time0.70
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.65
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

Ivory Coast in control from the off, leading at the break in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultIvory Coast
Who leads at half-time?Ivory Coast wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Ghana seizes the initiative early, leads at half-time, and the match opens up into a high-scoring affair with both teams on the scoresheet.

Match resultGhana
Who leads at half-time?Ghana wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Ghana edges ahead and holds the lead at the break in a tight, low-scoring contest where both sides manage to score but chances are hard to come by.

Match resultGhana
Who leads at half-time?Ghana wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
33% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 467 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWho leads at half-time?Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
114%67 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
Ivory Coast wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
3.6×
212%55 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.3×
37%34 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
47%32 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
Ghana wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.3×
55%23 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.2×
65%22 voters
GhanaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
74%20 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
84%19 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
Ivory Coast wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
94%19 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
Ivory Coast wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
104%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (467 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.35How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.6×The most-backed combination drew 3.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-25. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 419 · 4%
3 / 457 · 12%
2 / 4178 · 38%
1 / 4138 · 30%
0 / 475 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=467). Average 1.59 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.