The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Argentina2
Austria0
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
78%Crowd
45%Market
+33Divergence

+33 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd vs market gap peaks on half-time leader, crowd firmly above the price on Argentina.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap45%78% Argentina+33
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?50%77% Yes+27
3Will both teams score?47%73% Yes+26
4Who wins this match?63%88% Argentina+25
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedArgentina 2–0 Austria — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario45%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina88%
Austria9%
Draw3%
OutcomeArgentina
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
Argentina78%
Austria12%
Draw10%
OutcomeArgentina
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: ArgentinaConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 88%+25pp
Result: Argentina · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 77%+27pp
Result: No · 1.19
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ArgentinaConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 78%+33pp
Result: Argentina · 0.07
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 73%+26pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will there be 3 or more goals scored1.19
Who leads at half-time0.07
Will both teams score1.07
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 45% of voters

A dominant Argentina performance: ahead at the break, goals flowing freely, and both sides finding the net in a high-tempo contest.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Argentina in control from the off and pulling clear with goals, but keeping a clean sheet while the scoreline climbs past three.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Argentina ahead at half-time and both teams scoring, yet the final tally stays tight and the game never opens into a high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?Argentina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina
Will both teams score?Yes
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
145%692 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
216%242 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
38%130 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
47%101 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
54%65 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
6.9×
63%54 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
73%54 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustriaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
82%29 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
91%23 voters
ArgentinaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.7×
101%20 voters
AustriaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArgentinaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4101 · 7%
3 / 4402 · 26%
2 / 4775 · 50%
1 / 4179 · 12%
0 / 489 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 2.16 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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