All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Atlético Madrid2
Real MadridCrowd had 73%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Real Madrid. Atlético Madrid won 2–1.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Real Madrid, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Real Madrid
50%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario43%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid73%
Tie14%
Atletico ✓13%
OutcomeAtletico
Voters591
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓63%
Under 2.5 goals37%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters591
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓76%
No24%
OutcomeYes
Voters591
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real MadridUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 73%+23pp
Result: Atletico · 1.31
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 63%-2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.27
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 76%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.12
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.31
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.27
Will both teams score0.12
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 43% of voters

The dominant crowd vision: Real Madrid winning an open, end-to-end derby with both sides finding the net in a goal-rich contest.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A tighter picture: Real Madrid edging it in a close, scrappy affair where both teams scored but chances were at a premium.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A compact, controlled Real Madrid shutout, low on goals and with Atletico kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
143%252 voters
Real MadridGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
212%73 voters
Real MadridGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
311%65 voters
Real MadridGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
47%44 voters
Real MadridGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
56%36 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
65%32 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
75%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
84%24 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
93%16 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.3×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3314 · 53%
1 / 3170 · 29%
0 / 375 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 1.51 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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