All resolved pollsResolved · 8 AUG 2026Upset
Argentina Primera Saturday: two big calls
Tigre 1–0 River Plate · Boca Juniors 1–1 Vélez Sarsfield
The verdict

Tigre 1–0 River Plate · Boca Juniors 1–1 Vélez Sarsfield

Argentina Primera Saturday: two big calls 290 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 34 points above the market's price on River Plate, and it went the other way.

76%Crowd on River Plate
42%Market price
+34Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 2questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Tigre vs River Plate:…Surprise
Boca Juniors vs Velez…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario54%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters290World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end?
River Plate76%
Tigre ✓15%
Tie9%
OutcomeTigre
Voters290
ReadUpset
2Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end?
Boca Juniors68%
Velez Sarsfield24%
Tie ✓7%
OutcomeTie
Voters290
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end: River PlateUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 76%+34pp
Result: Tigre · 1.31
: Deep
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end: Boca JuniorsUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 68%+16pp
Result: Tie · 1.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end1.31
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end1.38
Average1.35
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 54% of voters

The dominant crowd vision: both Buenos Aires giants advance, River Plate sweeping past Tigre while Boca Juniors see off Velez in a clean sweep for the big clubs.

Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end?River Plate
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end?Boca Juniors
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A split-result vision: River Plate win their match comfortably, but Velez cause the upset in the other fixture, denying Boca Juniors.

Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end?River Plate
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end?Velez Sarsfield
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

The contrarian corner: Tigre pull off a surprise win over River Plate, while Boca Juniors hold firm and take care of Velez in the other game.

Tigre vs River Plate: how does it end?Tigre
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end?Boca Juniors
81% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 290 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosTigre vs River Plate: how does it end?Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield: how does it end?
154%157 voters
River PlateGot it wrong
Boca JuniorsGot it wrong
1.0×
218%51 voters
River PlateGot it wrong
Velez SarsfieldGot it wrong
1.0×
39%26 voters
TigreCalled it!
Boca JuniorsGot it wrong
0.9×
46%18 voters
TigreCalled it!
Velez SarsfieldGot it wrong
1.7×
55%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Boca JuniorsGot it wrong
0.8×
64%13 voters
River PlateGot it wrong
TieCalled it!
0.8×
73%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
TieCalled it!
4.4×
81%2 voters
TieGot it wrong
Velez SarsfieldGot it wrong
0.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (290 voters · top 8 of 8 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
2 / 20 · 0%
1 / 265 · 22%
0 / 2225 · 78%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=290). Average 0.22 / 2.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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