All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Detroit LionsWon · Crowd had 50%31
New York JetsCrowd had 50%24
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Detroit Lions won 31–24.

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 51 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on No
49%Market price
+51Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Detroit win by 7 or moreMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 47.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Detroit Lions ✓50%
New York Jets50%
OutcomeDetroit Lions
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will Detroit win by 7 or more?
No100%
Yes ✓0%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.5 ✓75%
Under 47.525%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters4
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Detroit wins 1st Half ✓50%
New York J wins 1st Half25%
Tie 1st Half25%
OutcomeDetroit wins 1st Half
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Detroit LionsConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 50%-23pp
Result: Detroit Lions · 0.50
: Deep
Will Detroit win by 7 or more: NoMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 100%+51pp
Result: Yes · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 75%+23pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.13
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Detroit wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 50%-12pp
Result: Detroit wins 1st Half · 0.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Detroit win by 7 or more2.00
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.13
Who leads at half-time0.38
Average0.75
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

Detroit controls from the first whistle and leads at the break, but the game stays close enough to stay within a touchdown while both offences push the total past the line.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Detroit win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

A tight, low-scoring first half ends level, Detroit eventually edges it in a grind that never gets loose enough to clear the total, and the margin stays inside a week.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Detroit win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Detroit builds a first-half cushion in a high-scoring affair, but the Jets claw back and steal the win while the combined points sail over the number.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will Detroit win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit wins 1st Half
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Detroit win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Detroit LionsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Detroit wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
225%1 voter
Detroit LionsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
8.0×
325%1 voter
New York JetsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Detroit wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
425%1 voter
New York JetsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
New York J wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.50How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 25%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.