All resolved pollsResolved · 1 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
AtlasCrowd had 44%0
MonterreyWon · Crowd had 51%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Monterrey won 0–2.

Atlas vs Monterrey 726 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Monterrey, and the crowd had it.

51%Crowd on Monterrey
39%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters726World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Monterrey51%
Atlas44%
Tie5%
OutcomeMonterrey
Voters726
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Monterrey wins 1st Half42%
Atlas wins 1st Half30%
Tie 1st Half28%
OutcomeMonterrey wins 1st Half
Voters726
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeNo
Voters726
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters726
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: MonterreyConsensus
Mkt 39%Crowd 51%+12pp
Result: Monterrey · 0.44
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Monterrey wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 30%Crowd 42%+12pp
Result: Monterrey wins 1st Half · 0.50
: Thin
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 52%-1pp
Result: No · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 58%+2pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.44
Who leads at half-time0.50
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.54
Will both teams score in regulation time0.67
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

Monterrey dominant from the off, leading at the break in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Who wins this match?Monterrey
Who leads at half-time?Monterrey wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

Atlas seize control early, lead at half-time, and the match opens up into a high-scoring affair with both teams getting on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Atlas
Who leads at half-time?Atlas wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters · came true

Monterrey control the match from the front, lead at the break, and keep it tight and clean, shutting Atlas out in a low-scoring, one-sided affair.

Who wins this match?Monterrey
Who leads at half-time?Monterrey wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
29% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 726 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
111%82 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Monterrey wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
210%72 voters
AtlasGot it wrong
Atlas wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.5×
38%60 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Monterrey wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
47%50 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Monterrey wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
56%40 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Monterrey wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
65%37 voters
AtlasGot it wrong
Atlas wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
75%37 voters
AtlasGot it wrong
Atlas wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
84%27 voters
AtlasGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
94%26 voters
MonterreyCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%26 voters
AtlasGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (726 voters · top 10 of 32 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 460 · 8%
3 / 4141 · 19%
2 / 4241 · 33%
1 / 4176 · 24%
0 / 4108 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=726). Average 1.82 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.