All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Buffalo BillsWon · Crowd had 71%24
Los Angeles ChargersCrowd had 29%16
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 49.5. Buffalo Bills won 24–16.

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers 7 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Under 49.5, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Under 49.5
49%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
Buffalo win by 8 or moreCrowd beat the market
there be more than 49.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters7World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Buffalo Bills ✓71%
Los Angeles Chargers29%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters7
ReadConsensus
2Will Buffalo win by 8 or more?
Yes ✓57%
No43%
OutcomeYes
Voters7
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 49.5 points?
Under 49.5 ✓71%
Over 49.529%
OutcomeUnder 49.5
Voters7
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Buffalo wins 1st Half71%
Los Angeles C wins 1st Half29%
Tie 1st Half ✓0%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters7
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Buffalo BillsConsensus
Mkt 76%Crowd 71%-5pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 0.17
: Deep
Will Buffalo win by 8 or more: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 57%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.37
: Deep
Will there be more than 49.5 points: Under 49.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 71%+22pp
Result: Under 49.5 · 0.17
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Buffalo wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 71%+5pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 1.59
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.17
Will Buffalo win by 8 or more0.37
Will there be more than 49.5 points0.17
Who leads at half-time1.59
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

A dominant, disciplined Buffalo win: the Bills control the game from the first whistle, build a commanding lead, and keep the scoring low throughout.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 8 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Under 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Buffalo wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Buffalo leads at the break in a high-tempo shootout, but the margin stays tight enough that neither side pulls clear by more than a single score.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Over 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Buffalo wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

The Chargers hold the early advantage in a grinding, low-scoring contest, before Buffalo claws back to take a narrow final win.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Buffalo win by 8 or more?No
Will there be more than 49.5 points?Under 49.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles C wins 1st Half
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 7 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Buffalo win by 8 or more?Will there be more than 49.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
129%2 voters
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 49.5Called it!
Buffalo wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.4×
214%1 voter
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Buffalo wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
314%1 voter
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 49.5Called it!
Los Angeles C wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
414%1 voter
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 49.5Got it wrong
Buffalo wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
514%1 voter
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 49.5Called it!
Buffalo wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
614%1 voter
Los Angeles ChargersGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 49.5Called it!
Los Angeles C wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
4.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (7 voters · top 6 of 6 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.49How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 29%
2 / 43 · 43%
1 / 42 · 29%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=7). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches