All resolved pollsResolved · 27 JUN 2026Upset
ColombiaCrowd had 23%0
PortugalCrowd's pick · 68%0
The verdict

Colombia 0–0 Portugal

Colombia vs. Portugal 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Portugal, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Portugal
48%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Portugal68%
Colombia23%
Draw9%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Portugal55%
Draw25%
Colombia20%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: PortugalUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 68%+20pp
Result: Draw · 1.34
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 58%+12pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 62%+11pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PortugalMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 55%+20pp
Result: Draw · 0.91
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.34
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Will both teams score0.77
Who leads at half-time0.91
Average0.92
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A Portugal-controlled contest with goals at both ends, the crowd's dominant vision of how this match would unfold.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Portugal in front at the break and driving a high-scoring game, but keeping Colombia off the scoresheet entirely.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, low-scoring Portugal win, controlled from the front with Colombia shut out and the game settled by a narrow margin.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
123%300 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
1.7×
211%141 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
1.3×
38%103 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
1.3×
47%92 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
0.7×
55%71 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.9×
64%55 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.6×
74%53 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ColombiaGot it wrong
2.5×
84%49 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
5.1×
93%39 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
103%33 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
2.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 414 · 1%
3 / 4119 · 9%
2 / 4301 · 23%
1 / 4468 · 36%
0 / 4399 · 31%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.14 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.