The matchResolvedUpset
Colombia0
Portugal0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
68%Crowd
48%Market
+20Divergence

+20 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd leaned Portugal far above market price on the winner question, a read the draw result did not support.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap48%68% Portugal+20
2Who leads at half-time?35%55% Portugal+20
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?46%58% Yes+12
4Will both teams score?51%62% Yes+11
How it landed:UpsetColombia 0–0 Portugal — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Portugal68%
Colombia23%
Draw9%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Portugal55%
Draw25%
Colombia20%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: PortugalUpset
Mkt 48%Crowd 68%+20pp
Result: Draw · 1.34
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 58%+12pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 62%+11pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PortugalMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 55%+20pp
Result: Draw · 0.91
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.34
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Will both teams score0.77
Who leads at half-time0.91
Average0.92
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A Portugal-controlled contest with goals at both ends, the crowd's dominant vision of how this match would unfold.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Portugal in front at the break and driving a high-scoring game, but keeping Colombia off the scoresheet entirely.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A tight, low-scoring Portugal win, controlled from the front with Colombia shut out and the game settled by a narrow margin.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
123%300 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
1.7×
211%141 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
1.3×
38%103 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
PortugalGot it wrong
1.3×
47%92 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PortugalGot it wrong
0.7×
55%71 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.9×
64%55 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.6×
74%53 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ColombiaGot it wrong
2.5×
84%49 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
5.1×
93%39 voters
PortugalGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
103%33 voters
ColombiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
ColombiaGot it wrong
2.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 414 · 1%
3 / 4119 · 9%
2 / 4301 · 23%
1 / 4468 · 36%
0 / 4399 · 31%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.14 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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