All resolved pollsResolved · 9 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Brasileirao Sunday: five matches, five calls
Cruzeiro 3–1 Mirassol · Bahia 0–0 Vasco da Gama · Red Bull Bragantino 0–2 Corinthians · Santos 0–2 Athletico-PR · Flamengo 2–0 Vitória
The verdict

Cruzeiro 3–1 Mirassol · Bahia 0–0 Vasco da Gama · Red Bull Bragantino 0–2 Corinthians · Santos 0–2 Athletico-PR · Flamengo 2–0 Vitória

Brasileirao Sunday: five matches, five calls 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Corinthians, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Corinthians
26%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 5questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol:…Crowd & market agreed
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama:…Surprise
Bragantino vs…Crowd beat the market
Santos vs Paranaense:…Surprise
Flamengo vs Vitoria:…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins?
Cruzeiro ✓73%
Mirassol22%
Tie5%
OutcomeCruzeiro
Voters591
ReadConsensus
2Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins?
Vasco da Gama49%
Bahia34%
Tie ✓17%
OutcomeTie
Voters591
ReadUpset
3Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins?
Corinthians ✓56%
Bragantino30%
Tie14%
OutcomeCorinthians
Voters591
ReadCrowd
4Santos vs Paranaense: who wins?
Santos58%
Paranaense ✓29%
Tie14%
OutcomeParanaense
Voters591
ReadUpset
5Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins?
Flamengo ✓68%
Vitoria20%
Tie12%
OutcomeFlamengo
Voters591
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins: CruzeiroConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 73%+15pp
Result: Cruzeiro · 0.12
: Deep
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins: Vasco da GamaUpset
Mkt 25%Crowd 49%+24pp
Result: Tie · 1.04
: Deep
Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins: CorinthiansCrowd
Mkt 26%Crowd 56%+30pp
Result: Corinthians · 0.30
: Deep
Santos vs Paranaense: who wins: SantosUpset
Mkt 44%Crowd 58%+14pp
Result: Paranaense · 0.86
: Deep
Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins: FlamengoConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 68%-12pp
Result: Flamengo · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins0.12
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins1.04
Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins0.30
Santos vs Paranaense: who wins0.86
Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins0.16
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Cruzeiro, Vasco da Gama, and Corinthians all defy market expectations, while Santos and Flamengo hold serve at home.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins?Cruzeiro
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins?Vasco da Gama
Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins?Corinthians
Santos vs Paranaense: who wins?Santos
Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins?Flamengo
Scenario 2 · 6% of voters

A near-consensus sweep with Bahia flipping the Vasco call. Corinthians away win remains the spine, everything else falls to the favourites.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins?Cruzeiro
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins?Bahia
Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins?Corinthians
Santos vs Paranaense: who wins?Santos
Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins?Flamengo
Scenario 3 · 5% of voters

The crowd's third cluster keeps faith with Corinthians and Vasco da Gama but splits on Santos, handing Paranaense the upset in that leg instead.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins?Cruzeiro
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins?Vasco da Gama
Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins?Corinthians
Santos vs Paranaense: who wins?Paranaense
Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins?Flamengo
30% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosCruzeiro vs Mirassol: who wins?Bahia vs Vasco da Gama: who wins?Bragantino vs Corinthians: who wins?Santos vs Paranaense: who wins?Flamengo vs Vitoria: who wins?
118%109 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
2.3×
26%37 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
BahiaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
1.1×
35%29 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
ParanaenseCalled it!
FlamengoCalled it!
1.2×
44%21 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
BahiaGot it wrong
BragantinoGot it wrong
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
1.2×
53%20 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
BragantinoGot it wrong
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
0.8×
63%17 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
BahiaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
ParanaenseCalled it!
FlamengoCalled it!
1.0×
73%16 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
TieCalled it!
CorinthiansCalled it!
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
1.0×
83%15 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
BragantinoGot it wrong
ParanaenseCalled it!
FlamengoCalled it!
1.2×
92%13 voters
MirassolGot it wrong
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
SantosGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
0.9×
102%10 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Vasco da GamaGot it wrong
CorinthiansCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
FlamengoCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 140 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 55 · 1%
4 / 574 · 13%
3 / 5232 · 39%
2 / 5161 · 27%
1 / 596 · 16%
0 / 523 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 2.43 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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