All resolved pollsResolved · 23 OCT 2026Upset
Ipswich TownCrowd had 24%1
Nottingham ForestCrowd's pick · 58%1
The verdict

Ipswich Town 1–1 Nottingham Forest

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest 548 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Nottingham Forest, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Nottingham Forest
42%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters548World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Nottingham Forest58%
Ipswich Town24%
Tie ✓18%
OutcomeTie
Voters548
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters548
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters548
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Nottingham ForestUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 58%+16pp
Result: Tie · 1.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 53%-2pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 69%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Forest taking the points in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A tight, controlled Forest victory, grinding out the win while keeping Ipswich off the scoresheet in a low-tempo, disciplined contest.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Forest edging a close, scrappy affair where both sides score but the game stays narrow, with Forest nicking it by the slimmest of margins.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 548 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%159 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
212%68 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%64 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
411%61 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
58%42 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
65%29 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
75%28 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
85%28 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
95%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
104%24 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (548 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 342 · 8%
2 / 3142 · 26%
1 / 3322 · 59%
0 / 342 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=548). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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