All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Atlanta FalconsCrowd's pick · 60%3
Carolina PanthersWon · Crowd had 40%34
The verdict

The crowd backed Atlanta Falcons. Carolina Panthers won 3–34.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Atlanta Falcons, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on Atlanta Falcons
43%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Carolina win by 2 or…Surprise
there be more than 44.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Atlanta Falcons60%
Carolina Panthers ✓40%
OutcomeCarolina Panthers
Voters553
ReadMarket
2Will Carolina win by 2 or more?
Atlanta Falcons +1.562%
Carolina Panthers -1.5 ✓38%
OutcomeCarolina Panthers -1.5
Voters553
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.556%
Under 44.5 ✓44%
OutcomeUnder 44.5
Voters553
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Atlanta Falcons50%
Carolina Panthers ✓33%
Tie17%
OutcomeCarolina Panthers
Voters553
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Atlanta FalconsMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 60%+17pp
Result: Carolina Panthers · 0.72
: Deep
Will Carolina win by 2 or more: Atlanta Falcons +1.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 62%+11pp
Result: Carolina Panthers -1.5 · 0.77
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 56%+8pp
Result: Under 44.5 · 0.63
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Atlanta FalconsMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 50%+13pp
Result: Carolina Panthers · 0.73
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.72
Will Carolina win by 2 or more0.77
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.63
Who leads at half-time0.73
Average0.71
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

Atlanta controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, keeps the game close enough to cover, and a free-scoring affair pushes the total past the line.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Carolina win by 2 or more?Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta Falcons
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Atlanta leads at half and holds on to win in a grinding, low-scoring contest that stays within a score throughout and never threatens the total.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will Carolina win by 2 or more?Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Atlanta Falcons
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Carolina dominates from kick-off, leads at the break, pulls clear by multiple scores, and both offences combine to push the game past the total.

Who wins?Carolina Panthers
Will Carolina win by 2 or more?Carolina Panthers -1.5
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Carolina Panthers
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Carolina win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%108 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
1.9×
212%66 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
1.5×
37%41 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Carolina Panthers -1.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
2.6×
46%35 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Carolina Panthers -1.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
2.9×
56%31 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
0.8×
64%21 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.5×
74%21 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
0.8×
84%21 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Carolina Panthers -1.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.9×
94%20 voters
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
Carolina Panthers -1.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
Atlanta FalconsGot it wrong
0.7×
103%18 voters
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
Atlanta Falcons +1.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Carolina PanthersCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 435 · 6%
3 / 496 · 17%
2 / 4133 · 24%
1 / 4164 · 30%
0 / 4125 · 23%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.55 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.