All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
San Francisco 49ersWon · Crowd had 33%24
Denver BroncosCrowd's pick · 67%14
The verdict

The crowd backed Denver. San Francisco 49ers won 24–14.

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Denver, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Denver
41%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsMarket beat the crowd
San Francisco win by 3…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 46.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Denver Broncos67%
San Francisco 49ers ✓33%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will San Francisco win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓50%
No50%
OutcomeYes
Voters6
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 46.5 points?
Over 46.567%
Under 46.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 46.5
Voters6
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Denver67%
Tie ✓33%
San Francisco0%
OutcomeTie
Voters6
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Denver BroncosMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.90
: Deep
Will San Francisco win by 3 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 50%-2pp
Result: Yes · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 46.5 points: Over 46.5Upset
Mkt 56%Crowd 67%+11pp
Result: Under 46.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DenverUpset
Mkt 41%Crowd 67%+26pp
Result: Tie · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will San Francisco win by 3 or more0.50
Will there be more than 46.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.90
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

The crowd's core vision: Denver controls the first half, both teams combine for a high-scoring game, and Denver holds on to win without San Francisco covering a three-point margin.

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will San Francisco win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A variant where neither side separates at the break, yet the game still opens up into an offensive shootout, with Denver ultimately winning and San Francisco falling short of a

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will San Francisco win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A tighter, lower-scoring picture where Denver leads at the half and keeps the game controlled, winning without allowing San Francisco to cover, in a contest that stays well within

Who wins?Denver Broncos
Will San Francisco win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Under 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Denver
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will San Francisco win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 46.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%1 voter
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 46.5Got it wrong
DenverGot it wrong
1.1×
217%1 voter
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 46.5Got it wrong
TieCalled it!
2.3×
317%1 voter
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
DenverGot it wrong
2.3×
417%1 voter
Denver BroncosGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
DenverGot it wrong
1.1×
517%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
DenverGot it wrong
2.3×
617%1 voter
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 46.5Called it!
TieCalled it!
9.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 6 of 6 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.46How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 17%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 17%
1 / 43 · 50%
0 / 41 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.