The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
67%Crowd
52%Market
+15Divergence

+15 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap of the poll, and it diverged from the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap52%67% Yes+15
2Who wins this match?68%60% Switzerland advances-8
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?52%58% No+6
4Who leads at half-time?39%43% Switzerland wins 1st Half+4
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedSwitzerland 2–0 Algeria — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams score in…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Switzerland advances60%
Algeria advances40%
OutcomeSwitzerland advances
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No58%
Yes42%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
Switzerland wins 1st Half43%
Tie 1st Half34%
Algeria wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeSwitzerland wins 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Switzerland advancesConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 60%-8pp
Result: Switzerland advances · 0.32
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 58%+6pp
Result: No · 0.35
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Switzerland wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 43%+4pp
Result: Switzerland wins 1st Half · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.32
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Who leads at half-time0.50
Will both teams score in regulation time0.90
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A high-scoring Swiss-led contest: Switzerland in front at the break, both sides finding the net, and the Swiss ultimately advancing through a lively regulation.

Who wins this match?Switzerland advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Switzerland controls the half-time picture and advances, but the match stays tight and low-scoring with both teams getting on the board.

Who wins this match?Switzerland advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Switzerland wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A cagey, goalless first half gives way to a narrow Swiss victory, with only one side scoring across the full ninety minutes.

Who wins this match?Switzerland advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
114%199 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Switzerland wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
212%166 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Switzerland wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
38%108 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.0×
47%97 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
57%92 voters
Algeria advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Algeria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.8×
66%89 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Switzerland wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
76%86 voters
Algeria advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Algeria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.3×
85%65 voters
Algeria advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
95%64 voters
Algeria advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
104%55 voters
Algeria advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.0×The most-backed combination drew 2.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 489 · 6%
3 / 4349 · 25%
2 / 4498 · 36%
1 / 4325 · 23%
0 / 4141 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.94 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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