All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Chicago BearsWon · Crowd had 33%23
New York JetsCrowd's pick · 67%12
The verdict

The crowd backed New York Jets. Chicago Bears won 23–12.

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 29 points above the market's price on New York Jets, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on New York Jets
38%Market price
+29Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Chicago win by 3 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 42.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Jets67%
Chicago Bears ✓33%
OutcomeChicago Bears
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Chicago win by 3 or more?
Yes ✓83%
No17%
OutcomeYes
Voters6
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.567%
Under 42.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters6
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Chicago ✓50%
New York J50%
Tie0%
OutcomeChicago
Voters6
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York JetsMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 67%+29pp
Result: Chicago Bears · 0.90
: Deep
Will Chicago win by 3 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 83%+29pp
Result: Yes · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 67%+16pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ChicagoConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 50%-11pp
Result: Chicago · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Chicago win by 3 or more0.06
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Jets control the game from the first half, Chicago keeps it close enough to cover the margin, and both offences combine for a high-scoring affair.

Who wins?New York Jets
Will Chicago win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A minority picture of a Bears win built on a Jets-led first half, with points flowing freely throughout and Chicago pulling clear by the final whistle.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?New York J
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters · came true

A tighter, defence-shaped Bears victory, with Chicago setting the tone from the opening half and both sides keeping the scoreboard relatively quiet.

Who wins?Chicago Bears
Will Chicago win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Chicago
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Chicago win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
New York JetsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
New York JGot it wrong
1.8×
217%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
New York JGot it wrong
1.8×
317%1 voter
Chicago BearsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
ChicagoCalled it!
3.7×
417%1 voter
New York JetsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
ChicagoCalled it!
8.9×
517%1 voter
New York JetsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
ChicagoCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.49How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 17%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 43 · 50%
1 / 42 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.