All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
CD Guadalajara3
Pumas UNAMCrowd had 40%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Guadalajara. CD Guadalajara won 3–0.

Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM 638 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points below the market's price on Guadalajara, and it went the other way.

40%Crowd on Guadalajara
63%Market price
-23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters638World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Guadalajara ✓40%
Pumas UNAM40%
Tie19%
OutcomeGuadalajara
Voters638
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals ✓42%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters638
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters638
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GuadalajaraConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 40%-23pp
Result: Guadalajara · 0.56
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 58%+14pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 61%+9pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.56
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.67
Will both teams score0.74
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A high-scoring home victory with both sides contributing, the crowd's most tightly clustered vision of an open, attacking contest at Guadalajara.

Match resultGuadalajara
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Pumas UNAM taking the points in a free-flowing, end-to-end match where neither side kept a clean sheet.

Match resultPumas UNAM
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A tight, low-scoring Pumas UNAM win, with the away side shutting out Guadalajara and keeping the game locked and controlled.

Match resultPumas UNAM
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 638 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
115%96 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
214%87 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
312%75 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
411%70 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
511%70 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
610%66 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
78%48 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
87%44 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
94%26 voters
GuadalajaraCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
104%24 voters
Pumas UNAMGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (638 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 326 · 4%
2 / 3198 · 31%
1 / 3300 · 47%
0 / 3114 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=638). Average 1.21 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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