VoxPop top scenarios
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Iraq1
Norway4
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
61%Crowd
41%Market
+20Divergence
+20 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap41%61% Yes+20
2Who wins?81%63% Norway-18
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?62%51% Yes-11
4Who leads at half-time?63%56% Norway-7
Crowd & market agreedIraq 1–4 Norway — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.21
Who leads at half-time0.29
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.48
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.32
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?
118%236 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.7×
213%161 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
39%113 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
48%108 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
56%79 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
4.5×
64%54 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
5.9×
74%52 voters
NorwayCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%43 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.6×
93%43 voters
NorwayCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
103%40 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.3 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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