VoxPop top scenarios
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
IraqCrowd had 23%1
NorwayWon · Crowd had 63%4
The verdict
The crowd backed Yes. Norway won 1–4.
Iraq vs. Norway 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
61%Crowd on Yes
41%Market price
+20Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeNorway
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.21
Who leads at half-time0.29
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.48
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.32
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?
118%236 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.7×
213%161 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
39%113 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
48%108 voters
NorwayCalled it!
NorwayCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
56%79 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
4.5×
64%54 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
5.9×
74%52 voters
NorwayCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%43 voters
IraqGot it wrong
IraqGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.6×
93%43 voters
NorwayCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
103%40 voters
DrawGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.3 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.