All resolved pollsResolved · 30 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
CoritibaCrowd had 39%0
CruzeiroWon · Crowd had 55%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Cruzeiro won 0–1.

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro 800 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Cruzeiro, and the crowd had it.

55%Crowd on Cruzeiro
43%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario10%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters800World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Cruzeiro55%
Coritiba39%
Tie6%
OutcomeCruzeiro
Voters800
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Cruzeiro wins 1st Half42%
Tie 1st Half31%
Coritiba wins 1st Half28%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters800
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No51%
Yes49%
OutcomeNo
Voters800
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes57%
No43%
OutcomeNo
Voters800
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CruzeiroConsensus
Mkt 43%Crowd 55%+12pp
Result: Cruzeiro · 0.36
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Cruzeiro wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 32%Crowd 42%+10pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.73
: Thin
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 51%-5pp
Result: No · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: No · 0.65
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.36
Who leads at half-time0.73
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.48
Will both teams score in regulation time0.65
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 10% of voters

Cruzeiro dominant from the off, leading at the break in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Who wins this match?Cruzeiro
Who leads at half-time?Cruzeiro wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters

Cruzeiro take control early and keep it tight, leading at half-time and shutting Coritiba out in a low, controlled, single-goal affair.

Who wins this match?Cruzeiro
Who leads at half-time?Cruzeiro wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Cruzeiro ahead at the break in a close, scrappy contest where both teams score but neither side can push the tally beyond two goals.

Who wins this match?Cruzeiro
Who leads at half-time?Cruzeiro wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
25% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 800 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
110%82 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Cruzeiro wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
28%61 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Cruzeiro wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
38%60 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Cruzeiro wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
47%59 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Coritiba wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.4×
56%49 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Cruzeiro wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
65%39 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
74%35 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Coritiba wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
84%35 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Coritiba wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
94%32 voters
CruzeiroCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
104%31 voters
CoritibaGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (800 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-10The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-10; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 432 · 4%
3 / 4170 · 21%
2 / 4296 · 37%
1 / 4209 · 26%
0 / 493 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=800). Average 1.8 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.