All resolved pollsResolved · 16 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
MirassolWon · Crowd had 31%2
InternacionalCrowd's pick · 53%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Internacional. Mirassol won 2–0.

Mirassol vs Internacional 546 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Internacional, and it went the other way.

53%Crowd on Internacional
28%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters546World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Internacional53%
Mirassol ✓31%
Tie15%
OutcomeMirassol
Voters546
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters546
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters546
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: InternacionalMarket
Mkt 28%Crowd 53%+25pp
Result: Mirassol · 0.78
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 51%+1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.78
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Internacional controlling an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net in a multi-goal away win.

Match resultInternacional
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A lively home upset with goals at both ends, Mirassol taking the points in a free-scoring, mutually productive game.

Match resultMirassol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight, low-event Internacional victory, one team keeping a clean sheet in a disciplined, defensively compact away performance.

Match resultInternacional
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 546 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%129 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
214%74 voters
MirassolCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
313%69 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
412%66 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
59%47 voters
MirassolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
67%38 voters
MirassolCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
75%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
85%28 voters
InternacionalGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
103%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (546 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 338 · 7%
2 / 3146 · 27%
1 / 3212 · 39%
0 / 3150 · 27%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=546). Average 1.13 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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