All resolved pollsResolved · 14 JUL 2026Upset
France0
Spain2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Spain won 0–2.

France vs Spain 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

81%Crowd on Yes
58%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 4 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances68%
Spain advances32%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes81%
No19%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half44%
Tie 1st Half32%
Spain wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeSpain wins 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 68%+9pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.92
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 81%+23pp
Result: No · 1.31
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 31%Crowd 44%+13pp
Result: Spain wins 1st Half · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.92
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.50
Will both teams score in regulation time1.31
Who leads at half-time0.87
Average0.90
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

France in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a lively open game, France ahead at the break and through to the next round.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tight, low-scoring affair where both teams score but chances are scarce, France edging ahead before half-time and holding on to advance.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Goals flow from both sides in an open first half that ends level, before France find a way through to seal their place in the next round.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
43% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
119%276 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
215%219 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
39%128 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
48%112 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.5×
58%111 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
66%90 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.0×
74%55 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
84%54 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
94%52 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
103%48 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 438 · 3%
3 / 4163 · 11%
2 / 4345 · 24%
1 / 4494 · 34%
0 / 4404 · 28%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.26 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.