The matchResolvedUpset
France0
Spain2
Crowd and market both called 0 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
81%Crowd
58%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits far above the market on both teams scoring, the widest gap in the poll.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap58%81% Yes+23
2Who leads at half-time?31%44% France wins 1st Half+13
3Who wins this match?59%68% France advances+9
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?51%50% Yes-1
How it landed:UpsetFrance 0–2 Spain — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 4 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances68%
Spain advances32%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes50%
No50%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes81%
No19%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half44%
Tie 1st Half32%
Spain wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeSpain wins 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 68%+9pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.92
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 81%+23pp
Result: No · 1.31
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 31%Crowd 44%+13pp
Result: Spain wins 1st Half · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.92
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.50
Will both teams score in regulation time1.31
Who leads at half-time0.87
Average0.90
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

France in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a lively open game, France ahead at the break and through to the next round.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tight, low-scoring affair where both teams score but chances are scarce, France edging ahead before half-time and holding on to advance.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Goals flow from both sides in an open first half that ends level, before France find a way through to seal their place in the next round.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
43% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
119%276 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
215%219 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
39%128 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
48%112 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.5×
58%111 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
66%90 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
2.0×
74%55 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
84%54 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
94%52 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
103%48 voters
France advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 438 · 3%
3 / 4163 · 11%
2 / 4345 · 24%
1 / 4494 · 34%
0 / 4404 · 28%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 1.26 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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