All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Upset
Newcastle United0
Aston VillaWon · Crowd had 42%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Aston Villa won 0–1.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 535 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Yes
62%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters535World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Aston Villa ✓42%
Newcastle42%
Tie16%
OutcomeAston Villa
Voters535
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters535
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes75%
No ✓25%
OutcomeNo
Voters535
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: NewcastleUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 42%0pp
Result: Aston Villa · 0.54
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 53%-7pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 75%+13pp
Result: No · 1.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.54
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score1.13
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

A home win in an open, end-to-end game, both sides finding the net in a contest with plenty of goals. Newcastle asserting themselves at St. James' Park.

Match resultNewcastle
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Villa taking the points in a lively, high-scoring affair, with both teams contributing to a match that delivered goals at either end.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A tight Villa victory in a low-scoring but open game, each side managing at least one goal in a closely contested, narrow affair.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 535 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%125 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
219%99 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
313%69 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
49%47 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
58%44 voters
Aston VillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
68%41 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
76%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
93%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
103%14 voters
NewcastleGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (535 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 344 · 8%
2 / 3140 · 26%
1 / 3197 · 37%
0 / 3154 · 29%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=535). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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