All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
San Francisco 49ersWon · Crowd had 59%35
Miami DolphinsCrowd had 41%13
The verdict

The crowd called it — San Francisco 49ers won 35–13.

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 31 points below the market's price on San Francisco 49ers, and the crowd had it.

59%Crowd on San Francisco 49ers
90%Market price
-31Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
San Francisco win by 14…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 45.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
San Francisco 49ers ✓59%
Miami Dolphins41%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters557
ReadConsensus
2Will San Francisco win by 14 or more?
San Francisco 49ers -13.5 ✓56%
Miami Dolphins +13.544%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers -13.5
Voters557
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.5 ✓58%
Under 45.542%
OutcomeOver 45.5
Voters557
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
San Francisco 49ers ✓48%
Miami Dolphins36%
Tie17%
OutcomeSan Francisco 49ers
Voters557
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: San Francisco 49ersConsensus
Mkt 90%Crowd 59%-31pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.34
: Deep
Will San Francisco win by 14 or more: San Francisco 49ers -13.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 56%+7pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers -13.5 · 0.39
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5Consensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 58%+8pp
Result: Over 45.5 · 0.35
: Thin
Who leads at half-time: San Francisco 49ersConsensus
Mkt 74%Crowd 48%-26pp
Result: San Francisco 49ers · 0.43
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.34
Will San Francisco win by 14 or more0.39
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.35
Who leads at half-time0.43
Average0.38
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters · came true

A dominant 49ers performance from the first whistle, winning big, scoring freely, and leading at the break in a high-scoring blowout.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 14 or more?San Francisco 49ers -13.5
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?San Francisco 49ers
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A Dolphins upset built on early momentum, staying within reach throughout in an open, high-scoring contest they controlled from the front.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Will San Francisco win by 14 or more?Miami Dolphins +13.5
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami Dolphins
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A controlled, defensive 49ers victory, winning comfortably and leading at half in a low-scoring, disciplined game that never opened up.

Who wins?San Francisco 49ers
Will San Francisco win by 14 or more?San Francisco 49ers -13.5
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?San Francisco 49ers
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will San Francisco win by 14 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%112 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
San Francisco 49ers -13.5Called it!
Over 45.5Called it!
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
2.2×
212%67 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
3.2×
312%66 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
San Francisco 49ers -13.5Called it!
Under 45.5Got it wrong
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
1.8×
47%37 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Under 45.5Got it wrong
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
2.4×
54%24 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
0.6×
63%19 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Under 45.5Got it wrong
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
0.7×
73%18 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
San Francisco 49ers -13.5Called it!
Over 45.5Called it!
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
0.7×
83%17 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
San Francisco 49ers -13.5Called it!
Over 45.5Called it!
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
0.4×
93%17 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Over 45.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.2×
103%17 voters
San Francisco 49ersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +13.5Got it wrong
Under 45.5Got it wrong
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4112 · 20%
3 / 4134 · 24%
2 / 4124 · 22%
1 / 4136 · 24%
0 / 451 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 2.22 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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