All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
Tigres UANL3
TolucaCrowd had 34%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Tigres. Tigres UANL won 3–2.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Tigres, and it went the other way.

46%Crowd on Tigres
31%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tigres ✓46%
Toluca34%
Tie20%
OutcomeTigres
Voters557
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters557
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters557
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TigresCrowd
Mkt 31%Crowd 46%+15pp
Result: Tigres · 0.45
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 51%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 70%+11pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.45
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Tigres take the win in an open, end-to-end match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultTigres
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A sizeable minority saw Toluca turning the tables in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest with both teams on the scoresheet.

Match resultToluca
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A quieter Tigres victory, tight on goals but still with Toluca grabbing one of their own in a controlled, low-volume win.

Match resultTigres
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%133 voters
TigresCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
215%83 voters
TolucaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
310%53 voters
TigresCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
49%52 voters
TigresCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
59%49 voters
TolucaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
69%49 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
78%44 voters
TolucaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
84%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
103%18 voters
TigresCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3133 · 24%
2 / 3179 · 32%
1 / 3176 · 32%
0 / 369 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 1.68 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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