All resolved pollsResolved · 28 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Turkey1
ItalyWon · Crowd had 68%4
The verdict

The crowd called it — Italy won 1–4.

Türkiye vs Italy 612 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 29 points above the market's price on Italy, and the crowd had it.

68%Crowd on Italy
39%Market price
+29Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters612World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Italy ✓68%
Turkiye21%
Tie11%
OutcomeItaly
Voters612
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters612
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓68%
No32%
OutcomeYes
Voters612
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ItalyConsensus
Mkt 39%Crowd 68%+29pp
Result: Italy · 0.16
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 56%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 68%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.20
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.16
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.39
Will both teams score0.20
Average0.25
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters · came true

Italy win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Italy grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping Türkiye off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined affair.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Italy win a close contest where both teams score but chances are limited and the game stays compact throughout.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 612 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
131%192 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
214%87 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
314%86 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
49%58 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
58%51 voters
ItalyCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
65%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
75%29 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
84%26 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
93%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
102%14 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (612 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3192 · 31%
2 / 3214 · 35%
1 / 3169 · 28%
0 / 337 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=612). Average 1.92 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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