VoxPop top scenarios
43% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Saudi Arabia1
Uruguay1
Crowd and market both called 1 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
56%Crowd
31%Market
+25Divergence
+25 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will there be 3 or more goals scored.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Biggest gap31%56% Yes+25
2Will both teams score?42%66% Yes+24
3Who leads at half-time?48%56% Uruguay+8
4Who wins?67%64% Uruguay-3
UpsetSaudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeSaudi Arabia
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.29
Who leads at half-time0.93
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.63
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?
121%240 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
212%131 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
311%121 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
4.6×
410%115 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
57%75 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
64%41 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
73%37 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%31 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
92%28 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
102%27 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.44 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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