VoxPop top scenarios
43% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
Saudi ArabiaCrowd had 26%1
UruguayCrowd's pick · 64%1
The verdict
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay 1.1k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.
56%Crowd on Yes
31%Market price
+25Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeSaudi Arabia
Voters1.1k
ReadUpset
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.29
Who leads at half-time0.93
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.63
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.77
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?
121%240 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
212%131 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
311%121 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
4.6×
410%115 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
57%75 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
64%41 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
73%37 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%31 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
92%28 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
102%27 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 1.44 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.