All resolved pollsResolved · 1 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Juárez1
Pumas UNAMWon · Crowd had 47%5
The verdict

The crowd backed Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half. Pumas UNAM won 1–5.

Juarez vs Pumas UNAM 739 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half, and it went the other way.

46%Crowd on Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half
28%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario10%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters739World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Pumas UNAM47%
Juarez44%
Tie9%
OutcomePumas UNAM
Voters739
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half46%
Tie 1st Half29%
Juarez wins 1st Half25%
OutcomePumas UNAM wins 1st Half
Voters739
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeYes
Voters739
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes60%
No40%
OutcomeYes
Voters739
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Pumas UNAMConsensus
Mkt 37%Crowd 47%+10pp
Result: Pumas UNAM · 0.48
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 28%Crowd 46%+18pp
Result: Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half · 0.44
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: Yes · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 60%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.32
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.48
Who leads at half-time0.44
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.48
Will both teams score in regulation time0.32
Average0.43
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 10% of voters · came true

Pumas in control from the first whistle, leading at the break, goals flowing freely, and both sides finding the net in a high-tempo contest.

Who wins this match?Pumas UNAM
Who leads at half-time?Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

Pumas ahead at half-time and seeing the game out cleanly, a tight low-scoring affair with only one side on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Pumas UNAM
Who leads at half-time?Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Pumas dominate the first half but Juarez turn it around after the break, a chaotic high-scoring match with both teams contributing goals.

Who wins this match?Juarez
Who leads at half-time?Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
26% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 739 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
110%74 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
29%66 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
37%53 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
46%45 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
55%38 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
65%38 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Juarez wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
75%37 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Juarez wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
85%36 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
94%31 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Pumas UNAM wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
104%31 voters
JuarezGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (739 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-10The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-10; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 474 · 10%
3 / 4176 · 24%
2 / 4245 · 33%
1 / 4186 · 25%
0 / 458 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=739). Average 2.03 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.