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Vasco da Gama
Flamengo
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
69%Crowd
55%Market
+14Divergence

+14 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above market on both teams scoring. The sharpest divergence across all three legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap55%69% Yes+14
2Match result50%63% Flamengo+13
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?51%59% Over 2.5 goals+8
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters550World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Flamengo63%
Vasco da Gama27%
Tie11%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters550
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals59%
Under 2.5 goals41%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters550
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters550
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Flamengo
Mkt 50%Crowd 63%+13pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 51%Crowd 59%+8pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 55%Crowd 69%+14pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A free-flowing derby where Flamengo take the win in an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net. The crowd's dominant vision.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A high-scoring upset where Vasco da Gama claim the derby spoils in a game that still delivers goals at both ends.

Match resultVasco da Gama
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Flamengo grind out a narrow win in a tight contest, but Vasco still manage to get on the scoresheet before the final whistle.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 550 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%180 voters
FlamengoPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
213%71 voters
Vasco da GamaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.2×
312%64 voters
FlamengoPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
411%61 voters
FlamengoPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
57%39 voters
FlamengoPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
67%36 voters
Vasco da GamaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.9×
75%26 voters
Vasco da GamaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
85%25 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.5×
93%15 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
2.0×
103%15 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (550 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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