The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
70%Crowd
55%Market
+15Divergence

+15 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, and that read aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap55%70% Yes+15
2Who leads at half-time?37%49% Norway wins 1st Half+12
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?50%52% No+2
4Who wins this match?65%66% Norway advances+1
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedIvory Coast 1–2 Norway — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.8kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Norway advances66%
Ivory Coast advances34%
OutcomeNorway advances
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.8k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
Norway wins 1st Half49%
Tie 1st Half28%
Ivory Coast wins 1st Half23%
OutcomeNorway wins 1st Half
Voters1.8k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Norway advancesConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 66%+1pp
Result: Norway advances · 0.23
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 52%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.54
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Norway wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 37%Crowd 49%+12pp
Result: Norway wins 1st Half · 0.39
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 70%+15pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.23
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.54
Who leads at half-time0.39
Will both teams score in regulation time0.18
Average0.34
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters · came true

Norway in control from the first whistle, leading at the break in an open game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Who wins this match?Norway advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Norway wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Norway edges ahead early and holds the lead at half-time, with both teams scoring in a tight, low-total contest that Norway sees out.

Who wins this match?Norway advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Norway wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A balanced first half ends level, both teams on the scoresheet, before Norway find a way through in a close and carefully managed match.

Who wins this match?Norway advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.8k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
117%307 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.6×
214%245 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Norway wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
36%117 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
46%101 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
56%100 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Norway wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
65%91 voters
Ivory Coast advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Ivory Coast wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
75%90 voters
Ivory Coast advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Ivory Coast wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
84%81 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
94%79 voters
Norway advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Norway wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
104%69 voters
Ivory Coast advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.8k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-9. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4307 · 17%
3 / 4526 · 29%
2 / 4528 · 29%
1 / 4354 · 20%
0 / 498 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.8k). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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