The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
France3
Sweden0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
74%Crowd
46%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits far above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap across all four legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap46%74% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?58%69% France wins 1st Half+11
3Who wins this match?88%90% France advances+2
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?60%62% Yes+2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedFrance 3–0 Sweden — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.8kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France advances90%
Sweden advances10%
OutcomeFrance advances
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
France wins 1st Half69%
Tie 1st Half19%
Sweden wins 1st Half12%
OutcomeFrance wins 1st Half
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes74%
No26%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.8k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: France advancesConsensus
Mkt 88%Crowd 90%+2pp
Result: France advances · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 62%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: France wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 69%+11pp
Result: France wins 1st Half · 0.15
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 74%+28pp
Result: No · 1.10
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.29
Who leads at half-time0.15
Will both teams score in regulation time1.10
Average0.39
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

France in control from the first whistle, leading at the break, with goals flowing at both ends and the final tally clearing three in regulation.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

France leads at half-time and sees the match out, but the scoring stays tight enough to stay under three goals, with Sweden still finding the net.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

France dominant and the goals plentiful, but Sweden kept scoreless as France piles on in a one-sided, high-volume regulation period.

Who wins this match?France advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
61% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.8k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
137%654 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
215%268 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
39%170 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
France wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.9×
46%111 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
France wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
56%100 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
65%92 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
73%51 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
83%48 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Sweden wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
92%36 voters
France advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Sweden wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%31 voters
France advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.8k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4170 · 9%
3 / 4822 · 46%
2 / 4523 · 29%
1 / 4236 · 13%
0 / 440 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.8k). Average 2.47 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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