All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Jacksonville JaguarsWon · Crowd had 0%19
Philadelphia EaglesCrowd's pick · 100%17
The verdict

The crowd backed Philadelphia Eagles. Jacksonville Jaguars won 19–17.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 76 points above the market's price on Philadelphia Eagles, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Philadelphia Eagles
24%Market price
+76Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsMarket beat the crowd
Jacksonville win by 7…Surprise
there be more than 42.5…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Philadelphia Eagles100%
Jacksonville Jaguars ✓0%
OutcomeJacksonville Jaguars
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.550%
Under 42.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters4
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Jacksonville50%
Philadelphia ✓50%
Tie0%
OutcomePhiladelphia
Voters4
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Philadelphia EaglesMarket
Mkt 24%Crowd 100%+76pp
Result: Jacksonville Jaguars · 2.00
: Deep
Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 50%-8pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Market
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: JacksonvilleUpset
Mkt 64%Crowd 50%-14pp
Result: Philadelphia · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins2.00
Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more0.50
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.88
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

Eagles win comfortably, Jacksonville never threatening a big margin, points flowing freely, Philadelphia controlling the first half from the front.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Philadelphia
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Eagles take the game in a tight, low-scoring affair, Jacksonville leading at the break but unable to build the cushion needed to cover a big spread.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Jacksonville
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Eagles win big in an open, high-scoring contest, Philadelphia dominant from kick-off and Jacksonville never close enough to threaten a seven-point margin.

Who wins?Philadelphia Eagles
Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Philadelphia
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Jacksonville win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
PhiladelphiaCalled it!
2.0×
225%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
JacksonvilleGot it wrong
2.0×
325%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
PhiladelphiaCalled it!
2.0×
425%1 voter
Philadelphia EaglesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
JacksonvilleGot it wrong
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.50How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.0×The most-backed combination drew 2.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 50%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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