All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Upset
Cleveland BrownsWon · Crowd had 33%13
Baltimore RavensCrowd's pick · 67%10
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 41.5. Cleveland Browns won 13–10.

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 53 points above the market's price on Under 41.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Under 41.5
47%Market price
+53Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
Baltimore win by 5 or…Surprise
there be more than 41.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario67%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Baltimore Ravens67%
Cleveland Browns ✓33%
OutcomeCleveland Browns
Voters3
ReadUpset
2Will Baltimore win by 5 or more?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 41.5 points?
Under 41.5 ✓100%
Over 41.50%
OutcomeUnder 41.5
Voters3
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Baltimore ✓67%
Tie33%
Cleveland0%
OutcomeBaltimore
Voters3
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Baltimore RavensUpset
Mkt 68%Crowd 67%-1pp
Result: Cleveland Browns · 0.90
: Deep
Will Baltimore win by 5 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 67%+14pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 41.5 points: Under 41.5Crowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 100%+53pp
Result: Under 41.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BaltimoreConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 67%+1pp
Result: Baltimore · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Baltimore win by 5 or more0.90
Will there be more than 41.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time0.22
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 67% of voters

A dominant, low-scoring Ravens performance: Baltimore controls the half, wins comfortably by five or more, and both teams keep the scoreboard quiet.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Will Baltimore win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A tight, grinding upset: neither side pulls clear at the break, Cleveland keeps the margin close, and a stingy defensive game keeps the total well down.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will Baltimore win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 41.5 points?Under 41.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 2 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Baltimore win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 41.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
167%2 voters
Baltimore RavensGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 41.5Called it!
BaltimoreCalled it!
2.2×
233%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 41.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
9.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 2 of 2 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.67How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 42 · 67%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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