All resolved pollsResolved · 18 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
AS Monaco FC2
LensCrowd had 13%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Monaco. AS Monaco FC won 2–1.

AS Monaco vs Lens 609 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 29 points above the market's price on Monaco, and it went the other way.

74%Crowd on Monaco
45%Market price
+29Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters609World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Monaco ✓74%
Lens13%
Tie13%
OutcomeMonaco
Voters609
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters609
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters609
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MonacoConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 74%+29pp
Result: Monaco · 0.10
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 54%-7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 64%-1pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.10
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Monaco in control of an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A tighter, more defensive picture: Monaco grind out the win, keeping Lens off the scoresheet in a compact, low-scoring affair.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Monaco win, but the game stays close and cagey, with both teams managing a goal each in a narrow, contained contest.

Match resultMonaco
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
66% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 609 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%207 voters
MonacoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
218%107 voters
MonacoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
315%89 voters
MonacoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
48%48 voters
MonacoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
54%27 voters
LensGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.0×
64%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
73%21 voters
LensGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
83%21 voters
LensGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
93%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (609 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3207 · 34%
2 / 3185 · 30%
1 / 3176 · 29%
0 / 341 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=609). Average 1.92 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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