All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Arizona CardinalsCrowd's pick · 50%21
Detroit LionsWon · Crowd had 50%45
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 54.5. Detroit Lions won 21–45.

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 50 points above the market's price on Over 54.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 54.5
50%Market price
+50Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Detroit win by 5 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 54.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Arizona Cardinals50%
Detroit Lions ✓50%
OutcomeDetroit Lions
Voters4
ReadMarket
2Will Detroit win by 5 or more?
Yes ✓75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 54.5 points?
Over 54.5 ✓100%
Under 54.50%
OutcomeOver 54.5
Voters4
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Detroit ✓75%
Arizona25%
Tie0%
OutcomeDetroit
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Arizona CardinalsMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 50%+19pp
Result: Detroit Lions · 0.50
: Deep
Will Detroit win by 5 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 75%+22pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 54.5 points: Over 54.5Consensus
Mkt 50%Crowd 100%+50pp
Result: Over 54.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DetroitConsensus
Mkt 72%Crowd 75%+3pp
Result: Detroit · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.50
Will Detroit win by 5 or more0.13
Will there be more than 54.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time0.13
Average0.19
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Cardinals upset in a high-scoring shootout, Detroit leading at the break but Arizona clawing back to win without pulling clear by five or more.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Detroit win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Over 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Detroit dominant enough to lead at half and build a margin of five-plus, yet the crowd saw Arizona somehow flipping the scoreboard in a points-heavy finish.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Detroit win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Over 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Detroit
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

Arizona seizes the first half only for Detroit to storm back, win by five or more, and push the combined score well past the total in a high-volume game.

Who wins?Detroit Lions
Will Detroit win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Over 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Detroit win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 54.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 54.5Called it!
DetroitCalled it!
2.7×
225%1 voter
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Over 54.5Called it!
DetroitCalled it!
0.9×
325%1 voter
Detroit LionsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 54.5Called it!
ArizonaGot it wrong
2.7×
425%1 voter
Detroit LionsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 54.5Called it!
DetroitCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.7×The most-backed combination drew 2.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 25%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 3 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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