The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Uruguay0
Spain1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
64%Crowd
47%Market
+17Divergence

+17 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on Spain leading at half-time, a call that aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap47%64% Spain+17
2Who wins this match?65%80% Spain+15
3Will both teams score?49%64% Yes+15
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?52%55% Yes+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedUruguay 0–1 Spain — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters992World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Spain80%
Uruguay11%
Draw9%
OutcomeSpain
Voters992
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeNo
Voters992
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No36%
OutcomeNo
Voters992
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Spain64%
Draw20%
Uruguay16%
OutcomeSpain
Voters992
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: SpainConsensus
Mkt 65%Crowd 80%+15pp
Result: Spain · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 55%+3pp
Result: No · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 64%+15pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: SpainConsensus
Mkt 47%Crowd 64%+17pp
Result: Spain · 0.20
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.06
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.61
Will both teams score0.82
Who leads at half-time0.20
Average0.42
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A free-flowing Spain dominant from the off, leading at the break in a game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Who wins this match?Spain
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters · came true

Spain tight and controlled, leading at half-time and keeping a clean sheet in a low-tempo, disciplined win with few goals.

Who wins this match?Spain
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Spain
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Spain ahead at the break and pushing the goal tally high, but Uruguay kept out entirely as Spain do the bulk of the attacking work.

Who wins this match?Spain
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Spain
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 992 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
126%256 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SpainCalled it!
1.4×
212%116 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
SpainCalled it!
1.4×
312%115 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SpainCalled it!
1.1×
411%105 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
SpainCalled it!
0.7×
55%51 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.9×
64%39 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
1.5×
74%37 voters
SpainCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
0.8×
83%29 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.6×
93%28 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
4.6×
102%22 voters
SpainCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
UruguayGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (992 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4116 · 12%
3 / 4273 · 28%
2 / 4394 · 40%
1 / 4163 · 16%
0 / 446 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=992). Average 2.25 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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