The matchResolvedMarket beat the crowd
Paraguay0
Australia0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
68%Crowd
45%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap on the board; the match ended goalless.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap45%68% Yes+23
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?31%51% Yes+20
3Who wins this match?33%44% Paraguay+11
4Who leads at half-time?27%36% Paraguay+9
How it landed:Market beat the crowdParaguay 0–0 Australia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters886World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Paraguay44%
Australia39%
Draw17%
OutcomeDraw
Voters886
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters886
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNo
Voters886
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Paraguay36%
Australia35%
Draw29%
OutcomeDraw
Voters886
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: ParaguayMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 44%+11pp
Result: Draw · 1.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 51%+20pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 68%+23pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ParaguayMarket
Mkt 27%Crowd 36%+9pp
Result: Draw · 0.76
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.52
Will both teams score0.92
Who leads at half-time0.76
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

Australia in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring contest with the Socceroos leading at the break.

Who wins this match?Australia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Australia
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Paraguay on top in a lively, end-to-end affair with goals at both ends and the hosts holding a half-time advantage.

Who wins this match?Paraguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Paraguay
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A tight, low-event contest with Paraguay grinding out control, keeping a clean sheet and leading at the interval in a match short on chances.

Who wins this match?Paraguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Paraguay
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 886 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
114%128 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
3.1×
212%109 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
2.2×
37%65 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ParaguayGot it wrong
3.0×
47%59 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
1.3×
55%47 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
1.2×
65%42 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.2×
75%41 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
6.0×
84%39 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.7×
93%30 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.7×
103%30 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (886 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.35How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.1×The most-backed combination drew 3.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-21. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 441 · 5%
3 / 497 · 11%
2 / 4207 · 23%
1 / 4260 · 29%
0 / 4281 · 32%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=886). Average 1.27 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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