All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUN 2026Market beat the crowd
ParaguayCrowd's pick · 44%0
AustraliaCrowd had 39%0
The verdict

Paraguay 0–0 Australia

Paraguay vs. Australia 886 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

68%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called
wins this matchMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters886World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Paraguay44%
Australia39%
Draw17%
OutcomeDraw
Voters886
ReadMarket
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeNo
Voters886
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNo
Voters886
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Paraguay36%
Australia35%
Draw29%
OutcomeDraw
Voters886
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: ParaguayMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 44%+11pp
Result: Draw · 1.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 51%+20pp
Result: No · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 68%+23pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: ParaguayMarket
Mkt 27%Crowd 36%+9pp
Result: Draw · 0.76
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.52
Will both teams score0.92
Who leads at half-time0.76
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

Australia in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open, high-scoring contest with the Socceroos leading at the break.

Who wins this match?Australia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Australia
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

Paraguay on top in a lively, end-to-end affair with goals at both ends and the hosts holding a half-time advantage.

Who wins this match?Paraguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Paraguay
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A tight, low-event contest with Paraguay grinding out control, keeping a clean sheet and leading at the interval in a match short on chances.

Who wins this match?Paraguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Paraguay
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 886 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
114%128 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
3.1×
212%109 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
2.2×
37%65 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ParaguayGot it wrong
3.0×
47%59 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ParaguayGot it wrong
1.3×
55%47 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
AustraliaGot it wrong
1.2×
65%42 voters
AustraliaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
AustraliaGot it wrong
2.2×
75%41 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
6.0×
84%39 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.7×
93%30 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.7×
103%30 voters
ParaguayGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (886 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.35How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.1×The most-backed combination drew 3.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-21. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 441 · 5%
3 / 497 · 11%
2 / 4207 · 23%
1 / 4260 · 29%
0 / 4281 · 32%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=886). Average 1.27 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.