The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Bosnia-Herzegovina3
Qatar1
Crowd and market both called 4 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
45%Crowd
68%Market
-23Divergence

-23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd heavily underweights Bosnia and overweights Qatar vs the market, with the Qatar win scenario landing as the.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap68%45% Bosnia-Herzegovina-23
2Who leads at half-time?51%38% Bosnia-Herzegovina-13
3Will both teams score?52%62% Yes+10
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?59%52% Yes-7
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedBosnia-Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 4 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Bosnia-Herzegovina45%
Qatar39%
Draw16%
OutcomeBosnia-Herzegovina
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes52%
No48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Bosnia-Herzegovina38%
Qatar35%
Draw28%
OutcomeBosnia-Herzegovina
Voters1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Bosnia-HerzegovinaConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 45%-23pp
Result: Bosnia-Herzegovina · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 52%-7pp
Result: Yes · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 62%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Bosnia-HerzegovinaConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 38%-13pp
Result: Bosnia-Herzegovina · 0.59
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.48
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.46
Will both teams score0.29
Who leads at half-time0.59
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

Qatar controls from the front, both sides find the net in an open game, and Qatar holds the lead at the break in a genuine upset.

Who wins this match?Qatar
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Qatar
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters · came true

Bosnia dominates but Qatar hits back, producing a high-scoring, end-to-end match with Bosnia ahead at half-time and through to the final whistle.

Who wins this match?Bosnia-Herzegovina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Bosnia-Herzegovina
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Bosnia grinds out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Qatar off the scoresheet and leading from the first half without the game ever opening up.

Who wins this match?Bosnia-Herzegovina
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Bosnia-Herzegovina
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
115%161 voters
QatarGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
QatarGot it wrong
3.5×
213%134 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
2.3×
37%76 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
2.3×
46%65 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
1.8×
56%60 voters
QatarGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
QatarGot it wrong
2.3×
65%57 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
6.7×
75%56 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
1.1×
84%46 voters
QatarGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
QatarGot it wrong
1.1×
94%43 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
3.1×
103%34 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.39How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.5×The most-backed combination drew 3.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-23. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4134 · 13%
3 / 4193 · 19%
2 / 4362 · 35%
1 / 4210 · 20%
0 / 4142 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1k). Average 1.97 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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